When one follows esports, they can easily imagine that when a winning team is on a roll, they are more prone to win. This concept is referred to as the hot hand fallacy, a mental bias when individuals believe that previous successes forecast future successes.
But does a team’s streak actually matter in guessing esports outcomes? Or is it just a trick our brains play on us? In this article, we’ll break down the hot hand fallacy and see whether streaks affect esports results, sharing smarter ways to play and win at 22Bet!
What Is the Hot Hand Fallacy?
Its origin is rooted in basketball, where fans felt that after making two, three, or more consecutive shots, an athlete was on fire and more likely to make another one. Yet, studies have shown that winning streaks are usually completely random and have no impact on future results.
How It Applies to Esports
In esports, the same logic applies, so if a unit wins three matches in a row, speculators might assume they’re unstoppable, but there are more variables to consider:
- Patch changes (match updates can shift team performance)
- Player fatigue (long tournaments wear athletes down)
- Opponent strength (a streak might be against weaker groups)
Does a Streak Really Predict Wins?
Some studies suggest streaks can indicate momentum, but they’re not a guarantee. Here’s why:
1. Small Sample Sizes
Esports tournaments often have few matches, so a “streak” of 3-4 wins might just be luck, not skill.
2. Competition Level Matters
A team might dominate weaker opponents but struggle against top-tier teams. Betting blindly on streaks ignores matchup quality.
3. Mental Factors
Winning streaks can boost confidence… or create overconfidence, as some groups get complacent after a few wins, leading to unexpected losses.
Smarter Strategies
Instead of blindly following streaks, try these smarter approaches:
1. Analyze Matchups, Not Just Streaks
- Check past head-to-head records.
- Look at player form (are key players performing well?).
- Consider game patches (did a recent update favor one team?).
2. Watch for Overvalued Teams
Bookmakers adjust odds based on public perception. If everyone bets on a “hot” team, their odds get worse. Sometimes, the underdog offers better value.
3. Bet with Logic, Not Emotion
Avoid the trap of thinking “they’re due for a win” or “they can’t lose now,” and stick to stats, not feelings.
The Role of Variance
One overlooked factor is variance, which is the natural fluctuations in performance that can make streaks misleading, outcomes that are heavily influenced by in-game randomness. This includes things like critical ability misses or even minor latency differences. A squad might appear dominant due to a few favorable moments, but that doesn’t necessarily reflect their true skill level.
This randomness means streaks can be statistical noise rather than signal; so the more volatile the game (e.g., PUBG with its RNG circle placements vs. StarCraft II’s controlled mechanics), the less predictive a streak becomes. Ignoring variance leads to overestimating streaks; embracing it leads to sharper bets.